Background
Data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used as a measure of economic growth in the United Kingdom and is one of the important underlying Bank of England (BoE) in determining its monetary policy despite the level of inflation, employment and wage levels. The GDP of the United Kingdom are usually high-impact on the GBP was released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 3 times per quarter that is preliminary, second and final estimate. The initial release is preliminary until more impact. The release of the data in the form of GDP percentage change compared to the previous quarter or quarter per quarter (q/q), and compared with the same quarter in the previous year or quarter per year (q/y). The most impacting data is usually GDP q/q.
Today, July 27, 10:30 PM EST will be released Preliminary data quarterly United Kingdom GDP to 2 year 2016. The first quarter GDP 2016 q/q grew 0.4%, lower than the 4th quarter 2015 which grew 0.3% (revised from previous data that grew 0.6%). For the Preliminary quarterly GDP to 2 2016 q/q to be released today are expected to grow 0.5% (or + 0.5%). Results in a higher release of estimates will tend to cause the GBP/USD strengthened, and conversely, if lower than expected then the GBP/USD will tend to weaken.
Sentiment and the levels are important
Although Governor Mark Carney hinted there will be an easing of monetary policy due to the Brexit, this month the BoE interest rate retained the see of + 0.3%, however at a meeting next month that will be accompanied by strong press conference predicted would happen cutting interest rates.
Meanwhile, there is speculation the possibility of rising interest rates The Fed in this year's financial market turmoil after subsiding post Brexit and fundamental data for the U.S. back improves. The difference between the two monetary policy the central bank caused the sentiment of GBP/USD against the release of this data tends to be bearish.
Technical basis, until 12:25 PM EST today above 4 hour chart shows a bullish correction possibilities due to the onset of the indicator RSI bullish divergence:
1. Prices are back above the curve of the middle band indicator of Bollinger Bands.
2. The curve of the MACD indicator cut curve signal (red) from the bottom and move it, and the histogram is above level also OSMA 0.00, indicating a bullish movement.
3. Line histogram indicator ADX is green indicating dominant bullish.
Confirm to buy if the price has broken through the resistance curve of exponential moving average (ema) 55 and the curve of the indicator RSI are above level 50 (center line).
The weekly pivot level: 1.3161
Resistance: 1.3190; 1.3219 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level); 1.3265; 1.3318 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement); 1.3351; 1.3412; 1.3482; 1.3532; 1.3650; 1.3837; 1.4004; 1.4090; 1.4285; 1.4432; 1.4615; 1.4736; 1.4804; 1.4880.
Support: 1.3056 (38.4% Fibonacci retracement); 1.3014; 1.2956 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement); 1.2907; 1.2863; 1.2796; 1.2649; 1.2235.
Indicator: exponential moving average (ema) 55; Bollinger Bands (20.2); Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.2); The MACD (12, 26,9); OSMA; RSI (14); ADX (14).
Fibonacci retracement:
The point of the swing low: 1.2796 (lowest rates July 6, 2016)
Swing high point: 1.3480 (highest price July 15, 2016)
Scenario 5 movement of the GBP/USD
The estimated market for the Preliminary quarterly GDP of the United Kingdom to 2 2016 q/q + 0.5%.
1. If the results of the release of the corresponding estimates, i.e. between + 0.2% to + 0.8%, then the possibility of GBP/USD will still move in the range, namely the move to limit resistance or the nearest support and the possibility to penetrate the support or resistance level.
2. If the results of the above release estimates, i.e. between + 0.6% to + 1.3%, then the possibility of GBP/USD will break through a resistance level on top of it.
3. If the results of the release is far above the estimate that is higher than + 1.3%, then the possibility of GBP/USD will penetrate 2 resistance level on top of it.
4. If the results of the release under the estimate, i.e., between-0.3% to + 0.1%, hence the possibility of GBP/USD will degenerate to penetrate one support level below.
5. If the results of the release far below estimates, i.e. lower than the-0.3%, then the possibility of GBP/USD support level 2 will penetrate below.
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