The Us Dollar Is Still Solidly Ahead Of The European Session Today

The U.S. dollar is still holding strong positions amid market confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at the end of this year. The dollar index, which measures the Greenback's strength against major currencies, erasing a decline which was formed at the beginning of the trading session today with a rise of 0.1 percent to as low as 96,474.

National Holidays In Japan
The Fed funds futures show the percentage increase in the interest rates The Fed in December had a 50-50. The figure is already higher than the interest rate hike chances survey 30 percent diniliai on last week. USD/JPY stabilized at 102.42 yen, a pretty good distance above the low level last week on the position of 100.68 yen, while the Euro dropped 0.1 percent to 1.1077 per u.s. dollar.

"This week a lot of people who were summer vacation in Japan, so the volume is relatively low and there is not a lot of factors moving the market," said Koji Fujikaya, President of FPG Securities Tokyo is interviewed by Reuters.

NZD Awaits RBNZ Policy
On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar was stable despite expectations that the Central Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates next Thursday worth 25b became 2 per cent, while its tampakn forex liquidity will thin out because of public holidays in Japan. 24 of the 25 economists Reuters estimates cutting interest rates, even at a quarter to four, the RBNZ could cut flowers until the tribe of 1.75 percent or lower.

Meanwhile, the dollar's gains and remove Australia slip to 0.3 percent by trading at 0.7625 post index numbers business NAB, whereas the NZD/USD traded stable in numbers 0.7133.

The US Dollar Rise, Together With The Interest Risk After NFP US

The U.S. dollar showed strengthening against the Yen in early trading session Monday (08/08/2016), extending his acquisition after reports the US exceed the NFP last week. The Non Farm Payroll numbers rose 255.000 in July exceeded the expectations of the 180.000 estimated by economists Reuters. As a result, expectations of u.s. economic growth as well as the probability of a rise in the interest rates the US Federal Reserve is supported.

USD/JPY strengthened 102.13 yen, rose 0.3 percent in early Asian trading session today, continue strengthening since late last week from 100.68. According to strategist of Daiwa Securities, Yukio Ishizuki, U.S. payroll data injecting risk interest to market sentiment and complicate motion yen for now.

On the other hand, the Euro SAG as low as 1.1046 per U.s. dollar on Friday, the lowest level in a week. In the morning session of this commercial sata news written, the EUR/USD positions 1.1002, tend to be flat from the level of trade in the American session last week. While the GBP/USD, falling to the lowest level of 1.3021 range, since the beginning of July, and last traded at 1.3078 position.

The index tracked the U.S. dollar strengthened against six major currencies with a high level of 96,522 on Friday, up 1.6 percent from the low level of five weeks in the number 95,003 which touched on Tuesday.

The Fed Squeezed Amid Projections Of Other Central Banks Monetary Easing
However, a rise in U.S. interest rates still have to face the challenge, among others, the uncertainty of Brexit and a slowdown in China. The Fed funds rate futures put up an estimated 20 percent increase in opportunities for interest rates in September and less than 50 percent chance for a rise in interest rates at the end of the year. "The market thinks that it would be difficult for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates while other countries in the world is searching for loopholes to loosen monetary policy," said Ishizuki cited by Reuters.

Whether Brexit has affected the economy of United Kingdom

United Kingdom-quarter GDP data two years 2016 released yesterday showed an increase far beyond estimation. With the rate of GDP 0.6% QoQ exceeded expectations of 0.4%, it is clear that the United Kingdom referendum staged Brexit in terakselerasi economic conditions. But, now, a month after the referendum States that more than some people want out of the EU, whether the United Kingdom economy is still primed, or are already starting to hit?

Ahead of the BoE meeting next week, it is worth re-evaluating a few economic reports the latest United Kingdom.

1. The manufacturing sector and services
A package of business survey results report the Markit/CIPS held last week indicated that the United Kingdom's manufacturing and services sectors are experiencing the fastest decline since the year 2009, due to the shock caused by the results of the referendum on 23 June. PMI Manufacturing collapsed to 49.1 from 52.1 previously, whereas PMI services slumped to 29.5 from previous 52.3. It is clear that business sentiment in the country are based in London that was devastated.

The business sentiment in turn will be reflected in the decisions of the business in the aggregate economy imposes potentially United Kingdom, particularly in the sector of employment.

2. Consumer Sentiment
On the other hand, the consumer confidence index in July, according to the YouGov survey results and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) "next →" to the lowest level in three years at 106.6. The community is mainly worried about what will happen to the value of their property after being reduced due to the increasing difficulty for people who want to move from continental Europe to the United Kingdom.

"If the concern of the owners will price their property to become a reality, then there could be very serious consequences for the housing sector as well as the economy in General," said CEBR Managing Director, Scott Corfe.

Economists initially hoping consumer spending could provide a way for the United Kingdom to avoid recession. However, retail sales turned out to be no less of a sharp fall after the referendum, as shown by the CBI Distributive Trades survey results the Survey yesterday. The index recorded the survey results of the activities of sales in the company's retail and wholesale 150 United Kingdom was experiencing, much lower than expectations 1 numbers the previous index 4.


3. The construction sector
In the construction sector, activity of any observed slowing down post Brexit. A survey held by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) predicts growth in construction activity will only reach 1% in the next 12 months, down from a previous estimate of 2.8%.

Meanwhile, the property market was the hardest hit sector since the referendum of 23 June Brexit. In addition to the income projection jeleknya ahead, stocks in this sector shrank and some mutual funds related had to disuspensi because of the hectic action selling.

4. Employment
The number one of the consequences of poor sentiment in the third sector is that companies trim their work force recruitment plans. Up to now, at least the construction companies and retail has indicated would act that way.

It's not just a new recruitment, salaries for employees suffered any threatened jammed. A survey from a human resources company XperHR and reviewed Reuters Thursday showed that the median salary in the quarter II/2016 only rose 1.8%, whereas over the last two years have been at 2% or more.

Sheila Attwood has from XperHR says, "it remains to be seen how the uncertainty surrounding the impact of options Brexit imposes on the salary, but we likely will see salaries remain low for months to come."

Conclusion
From the reports, it can be concluded that the results of the referendum of the current Brexit are primarily promoted business sentiment, both from the side of the producers as well as consumers. With poor expectations of market participants then the projected course of the economy in the future will be a drag, but the real effect on actual economic Brexit United Kingdom yet to be seen.

With a summary of the case, then unclear also whether the Bank of England's Policy Committee next week will consider an economy already requires the "buffer" or not. Though analysts widely mengekspektasikan BoE to slash interest rates at a meeting on 4 August, but the Regent Office still refuses commitment.

The Governor Mark "untrusted boyfriend" Carney has indeed been declared its readiness to trim interest rates or other policies in order to cope with running economic slowdown, but in the actual current slowdown has yet to happen (or at least, the evidence of impending slowdown has yet to appear). Martin Weale, a member of Netanyahu's MPC in BoE, in one interview last weekend says that the economy is worse than the conjecture, but he still refused to answer questions about when he thought (if needed) the stimulus will start took place.

The FOMC Doesn't Raise Interest Rates In July, The Dollar Widened

U.s. dollar stepped back in Asian trading session Thursday (07/28/2016) this morning after the US Federal Reserve interest rate rise signals stop in the near future as a result of the FOMC meetings which have been held since two days ago. The Yen's strength in picking any expectations that Japan's Central Bank will not launch a stimulus by previous investors.

Netanyahu's Belief Is Not Enough For The FED
After the FOMC yesterday, the FED said that it was already not too worrisome possibility of shaking against the US economy, and pointed out that a rise in interest rates in September were still possible.

"Short-term risks to the economic outlook has faded," said policy makers of The Fed. However, an increase in the "mood" of the central bank that apparently is not enough to establish the expectations will increase interest rates soon.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, stood at 96,591, below the high level 97,530 on the range last night. Earlier this week, the dollar index climbed as high as 97,569, the highest since March.

Euro surges to form a 1 percent against the U.S. dollar, from low level night became 1.0960 1.0725 this morning. Meanwhile against the Yen, the dollar slipped 0.3 percent to 104.91 yen.


Most Likely December
"If the US economy continues to grow despite the high increase in the problems and gaps in the labour market will fade, and we estimate that the Fed will still endeavour to increase interest rates once more before the end of the year especially in December," said Rabobank strategist cited by Reuters.

"However, the rise in interest rates in December we mean is to record, the risks taken into account by the FOMC not go up substantially in the year 2016," continued the Rabobank.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Signals Remained Bright, The Euro Slumped Back

The latest survey of top level public confidence the US returned to jump past expectations. Pessimistic analysts estimate appears to be only considered wind and then by the market. Across the continent, the Euro is not quite got the appreciation so that tends to back got pressure.

Keep Moving
Amid a slowing world economy, the U.S. domestic conditions thus tracked back got a surprisingly positive sentiment. The recording signal confidence households-households in the U.S., this night scoring strong 97.3. Far beyond the calculations on paper experts and economists who only 96.6 points only. The survey this time they estimate many u.s. citizens who consider the fate of the economy over the next few months would mediocrity if not want said to be less well however it easily beat.

Compared with results a year ago, if you want to explore further, the tendency of the time were much more promising. Level the index had perched on the numeric index of 101.4. This means that expectations of u.s. citizens who represented thousands of household survey, participants viewed the economy of that time was much better than the period of a year later i.e. now.

Been disturbed wheel business for some period lately, especially after the above-mentioned reference interest rate in the US at the end of last year, thus becoming its own test for fuindamental us. Proven the strength of the economy that still exist and continue to be stretched. There's not much influence from within and from abroad that are powerful enough to create the climate economy dims.

Euro Rectified
Sentiment is positive momentum from the land of Uncle Sam rolling tonight, as investors felt reminded to stay away from the Euro. On the open range on 1.0990 's, the Euro briefly tried soaring up. Strong resistant 1.1000 got back penetrated. But in the absence of clear support from the market participants, because of the Euro to continue to skyrocket should be halted in the middle level 1.1020. Lacing back carried out by supporters of the Greenback. Easily able to derail the Euro back below the figure 1.1000.

Of The BOJ Predicted Strong, The Yen's Drop Dollar

The U.S. dollar slipped ahead of a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve Committee that will begin Tuesday (07/26/2016) a night later. Meanwhile, the Yen strengthened in Japan hope the existence of additional easing of the Central Bank of Japan (of the BoJ) this week.

The Fed will maintain its monetary policy, but investors will still pay attention to the results of the FOMC meetings for the sake of getting signals as to when the tightening of monetary policy will be implemented this year.

On Monday, a number of analysts have indicated that the market does not see any chance for the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this week, but for the increase in December, the percentage of the estimated 56 percent rise from the previous 48 percent on last weekend.

The dollar index, which tracks the Greenback's strength against six other major currencies, dropped 0.1 percent to 97,228, below the level of the 97,569 high reached in March.

USD/JPY Slipping
The U.S. dollar slipped 0.3 per cent against the Yen at 105.23 figures, while the Euro faded 0.5 percent to 115.66 yen. Economists surveyed by Reuters, who, estimates that of the BoJ will take steps in easing the two-day meeting that ends later Friday.

The Government of Japan will also hold a package of easing by 20 trillion yen despite public spending will be much less than the amount specified. A report from Nikkei today also mentioned, Japan is likely to inject funds amounting to 6 trillion yen through fiscal policy directly in Japan's economy in the next few years.

"For yen, according to our more important and most important is the ' levels ' or mamizu flow of real fiscal package than the sum total of which is indeed easy to swell," said Ray Atrill, Chief Forex Strategist at bank NAB. "The bigger (the fiscal fund injection), then the stock market will be more supported and more and weaken the yen."

The Poor UK PMI Index, Evidence Of Recent Impact Brexit

United Kingdom economy showed a dramatic slump in its business activity after Brexit. According to data released by Markit Economics Friday (22/07/2016) this afternoon, PMI Manufacturing United Kingdom (flash) for July plunged to as low as 49.1 from 52.1 previously in. Whereas PMI services sector jeblok to 29.5 from 52.3 in June.

At Risk Of Recession

This data becomes the strongest proof that the economy is indeed United Kingdom slumped due to out of the EU and this could be the basis for the Central Bank of the United Kingdom to catapult the stimulus, although in monetary policy last week, the BoE States have yet to see signs of economic weakness due to the impact of the Brexit. The index below the 50 level that indicates that United Kingdom risky entry into recession. Markit also adds a description that has United Kingdom economic terkontraksi 0.4 percent this quarter.

"The decline in (index PMI), both because of its own due to the cancellation of the order is formed, the lack of order, or reasonable or termination of the project, still closely related either directly or indirectly with the Brexit," said Chris Williamson, Markit Chief Economist quoted by Bloomberg.

Not only that, any United Kingdom retail sales slumping as much as reported in yesterday's 4.3 percent YoY, previously reached 6.0 percent. Meanwhile, retail sales in the United Kingdom monthly decline sharply to-0.6 percent, slump of 0.6 percent from the previous month, and were all below the expectations of analysts.

The Poor UK PMI Index, Evidence Of Recent Impact Brexit